Uncertainty
Uncertainty is very common in weather-related applications, due to the unpredictable nature of the weather. This page explains the sources of uncertainty, how Sunsethue tries to minimise the impact of uncertainty and how you can deal with uncertainty in the forecasts.
Sources of uncertainty
There are two main sources of uncertainty with inaccurate forecasts as a consequence. Firstly, weather model output data is uncertain, especially on a longer term. Even small differences between the weather model output and reality can lead to big changes in the forecasted sunset quality, since this weather model data is used in Sunsethue’s own model.
Then there is uncertainty introduced by Sunsethue’s ray-based model itself. Even though the model is based on geographical and physical processes, there remains room for errors. Some constants are used on the model which may not always portray the reality very well. Besides this, the resolution and other settings are rather low due to limitations in computational capacity.
RAY-BASED MODELWhat does Sunsethue do to minimise uncertainty?
There are a couple of ways Sunsethue tries to limit uncertainty. For one, the forecasts only go up to three days ahead, because after the three day mark the weather model data accuracy goes down. I also made sure to limit uncertainty created by the Sunsethue model as much as possible, and I chose one of the best weather models to limit overall uncertainty. Lastly, I try to always improve the forecasts, and communicate about the possible uncertainty and inaccuracies of the predictions.
How can you account for uncertainty?
Generally, the nearer the forecasts, the more accurate. The first tip is thus to make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts. You can also check the maps section, to see if there is a lot of variability in the forecasts for your area. A lot of variability means that the sunset quality can change significantly if there is a small change in the position of the clouds, and thus an elevated uncertainty level.
Lastly, make sure to also take a look outside a bit before sunrise or sunset to see if the cloud-levels are as predicted. You can also familiarise yourself with the meaning of a certain sunset quality and set your expectation by reading the guide on how to interpret the quality below.
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